North Korea's arms exports to Russia likely to increase: analysts
2024-06-11 07:20:27
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| This photo released Sunday by state media shows North Korean leader holding a rifle during an inspection of munitions factories at an undisclosed location in North Korea. Yonhap |
Pyongyang promotes 'defense business' as it reinforces military ties with Moscow
By Jung Min-ho
As Seoul cements its position as one of the world's fastest-growing arms exporters, Pyongyang may also be aiming to emulate the South's success.
After North Korean leader Kim Jong-un inspected key weapons factories from Thursday to Saturday, its state media honed in on "defense business" ― a term it has never before used.
Speaking to reporters on Monday, Koo Byoung-sam, the spokesman for the Unification Ministry, said that recent signs indicate that North Korea might be seeking to export arms to Russia, a country in need due to its invasion of Ukraine.
"If that really is what it (North Korea) aims for, it is deeply regrettable as it is tantamount to admitting that it will violate the U.N. resolutions," Koo said.
For some experts, the ministry's analysis is a bit too conservative. They believe that North Korea has already violated the resolutions by sending arms to Moscow and that the size of its exports of "Russia-tailored" weapons will likely expand further.
"Russia is desperate and North Korea can gain much from Russia by providing what it needs. This creates a perfect environment for business between the two," Cho Han-bum, a senior researcher at the Korea Institute for National Unification, a think tank, told The Korea Times. "Given that they care less about what the U.N. says, North Korea will likely redouble efforts to sell more arms as it seeks to secure food, energy or technology support in return."
While inspecting factories making missile engines, artillery systems and other weapons, Kim called for the modernization and expansion of production lines.
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| This photo released by state media shows North Korean leader Kim Jong-un speaking with Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu during a meeting at the office building of the Party Central Committee in Pyongyang, North Korea, July 26. Yonhap |
The move comes a week after a military parade marking a halt in the 1950-53 Korean War last month in Pyongyang, where Kim was joined by Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu.
"Kim and Shoigu spent much time together, visiting a weapons exhibition, having meals and meetings," Cheong Seong-chang, a senior analyst at the Sejong Institute, a think tank, said. "This special treatment suggests that North Korea and Russia may have reached a deal beyond simply exchanging arms with food. It could be a deeper-level accord involving, say, Russia's technological support for the development of North Korea's military satellite or nuclear-powered submarine."
The experts said other countries will be unable to know ― let alone stop ― the trade details between the neighboring countries connected by rail. Late last year, they resumed cross-border railway trade, ending a two-year hiatus caused by COVID-19 border restrictions.
Since then, Washington has repeatedly accused Pyongyang of supplying weapons, including a significant number of artillery shells, to Moscow. After the initial phases of the war, Russia has been struggling to make headway on the battlefields due to many reasons including insufficient arms.
The two countries have denied the allegations.
All this will likely continue to fuel tensions on the Korean Peninsula, where experts warn that a Cold War-like division is deepening, with the North strengthening military ties with Russia and China to counter South Korea and its democratic allies.
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