Moon's plan to revive peace initiative through Tokyo Games faces hitch

This Feb. 16 aerial photo shows the National Stadium in Tokyo, a venue for the opening and closing ceremonies of the Tokyo Olympics. AP-Yonhap

By Nam Hyun-woo

President Moon Jae-in's bid to take the Tokyo Olympic Games as an opportunity to revive the peace initiative toward North Korea is facing uncertainties, as the sporting event appears to be losing steam on Japan's decision to bar overseas spectators.

Moon has been successful in using the Olympic Games as a tool to draw North Korea out for talks with not only South Korea but also the U.S. Kim Yo-jong, the sister of North Korean leader Kim Jong-un, visited the 2018 PyeongChang Winter Games, leading to a series of inter-Korean and U.S.-North Korea summits later that year.

Experts said Monday, however, that could not be the case for the Tokyo Games, as the event is losing steam by shutting its doors to visitors from overseas and the Moon administration is too optimistic about North Korea's preparedness to send its athletes to compete amid the COVID-19 pandemic.

Tokyo Games organizers said, Saturday, that overseas visitors will not be allowed to attend the event due to concerns over the pandemic.

This comes as a blow to the Moon administration's bid to use the Games as an opportunity to revive dialogue with the North.

During his speech on the March 1 Independence Movement Day, Moon said the Tokyo Olympics could be a chance for dialogue between the two Koreas, the U.S. and Japan, and Seoul would cooperate for the success of the Tokyo Olympics.

Before Moon's remark, Rep. Kim Jin-pyo of the ruling Democratic Party of Korea (DPK) said in November that Japan was willing to invite North Korean leader Kim Jong-un to the Olympics should Kim show a favorable reaction to participating. Prior to that, former U.S. National Security Adviser Robert O'Brien also said, during his talks in October with Suh Hoon, the chief of the presidential National Security Office, that there may be a chance to resume denuclearization talks with North Korea during the Summer Games.

As to Tokyo's decision, a Cheong Wa Dae official said barring overseas spectators is "an anticipated outcome" given the COVID-19 situation in Japan, and the government will "continue making efforts toward peace on the Korean Peninsula." The official said, however, that nothing has been determined over making a joint entrance of South and North Korean athletes or forming a joint team.

Kim Yo-jong, right, the sister of North Korean leader Kim Jong-un, waits for the start of a women's hockey game at the 2018 Winter Olympics in PyeongChang, Gangwon Province, South Korea, Feb. 10, 2018. AP-Yonhap

Though Cheong Wa Dae downplayed Tokyo's decision, experts said the chances of resuming talks with the North during the Games have become slimmer.

"It seems difficult to have talks with North Korea after the decision," said Yoon Kang-ro, president of the International Sport Diplomacy Institute. "Japan is requesting each state to limit the size of delegations for heads of state and governments. Under this situation, there seem to be physical setbacks hampering proper talks with key figures involved."

NHK reported Sunday that Japan is requesting each state to limit the size of delegations to a maximum of 12 for a head of state, and five for a Cabinet member.

Cheong Seong-chang, director of the Center for North Korean Studies at Sejong Institute, also said the situation with the Tokyo Games is unfolding differently from the Moon government's anticipation, which was "too optimistic."

"There are still questions whether North Korea can join the Games," Cheong said. "Since last year, North Korea has been closing its borders due to COVID-19 and it is uncertain whether the reclusive state has a proper treatment or vaccination program. Against this backdrop, it seems too optimistic to assume that North Korea will send its athletes or any other delegation to Tokyo."

Cheong added that the Moon government's tactic of building on light issues ― such as sports ― to address tougher issues ― such as denuclearization ― was effective once during the PyeongChang Winter Games, but there is no guarantee that the same strategy will work again this time.

"Kim Yo-jong recently made another denunciation over a South Korea-U.S. combined military exercise, and the Moon government's response should be aimed at addressing this, not sports," Cheong said. "This may result in the North thinking that it cannot carry on conversations with the Moon administration."