North Korea could carry out provocative acts in October when the country marks the anniversaries of its party's foundation and a former ruler's ascent to power,
and China opens a key party meeting, experts said Sunday.
North Korea has used important national occasions as pretexts for military provocations and a show of force.
South Korean presidential office Cheong Wa Dae has recently raised the possibility that North Korea may launch a provocation on Oct. 10, the 72nd founding anniversary of the ruling Workers' Party of Korea (WPK).
In 2006, the North conducted its first nuclear test one day before the WPK founding anniversary.
Seoul's spy agency also said that Pyongyang could fire an intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBMs) on a standard trajectory toward the North Pacific around the party anniversary. The North conducted its sixth nuke test on Sept. 3 and lobbed two ICBMs in July.
Amid a fiery war of words, its leader Kim Jong-un last month warned that the United States will pay dearly for President Donald Trump threat to "totally destroy" the country.
North Korea's foreign minister later said that it could consider a detonation of a hydrogen bomb over the Pacific Ocean.
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Seoul's presidential office also pointed to Oct. 18, the opening day of the 19th national congress by China's Communist Party, as a possible date of North Korean action. It gave no details for the projection.
"If the North's provocation is timed with China's party congress, it could be intended to pressure both the U.S. and China," said Kim Yong-hyun, a professor at Dongguk University.
North Korea is also poised to mark the 20th anniversary of late former leader Kim Jong-il being elected the WPK's general secretary on Oct. 8.
Kim, the father of incumbent leader Kim Jong-un, took power in 1994 after the death of his father and the country's founder Kim Il-sung. He served as chairman of the powerful National Defense Commission, advocating a military first, or "songun," policy.
Meanwhile, the two Koreas will mark the 10th anniversary of their second inter-Korean summit on Oct. 4.
Late former South Korean President Roh Moo-hyun and his then-North Korean counterpart Kim Jong-il held a summit in 2007 and announced a joint declaration on inter-Korean reconciliation.
In 2000, late ex-President Kim Dae-jung and the North's Kim held the two Koreas' first summit.
Experts said that the North may skip the summit anniversary for its provocations, given that it attaches meaning to the two inter-Korean summits.
For nine years since 2008, South Korea had been ruled by conservative governments which are tough on North Korea. (Yonhap)
