North Korean leader Kim Jong-un speaks during a groundbreaking ceremony for the construction of a greenhouse farm in South Hamgyong Province, Friday, in this photo provided by the North's Korean Central News Agency (KCNA). Yonhap

China's Paralympics, two significant political meetings may affect Pyongyang's decision

By Kang Seung-woo

As the Beijing Winter Olympics have come to a close, North Korea is anticipated to restart its show of force in the near future amid an impasse in nuclear talks with the United States, according to diplomatic observers.

Pyongyang carried out an unprecedented seven rounds of missile launches in January, including a test-firing of an intermediate-range ballistic missile (IRBM), but has since refrained from saber-rattling in what seems to be a move to not steal attention from the 2022 Beijing Winter Olymmpic Games hosted by China, its lone economic pipeline and diplomatic protector. The quadrennial sporting event held its closing ceremony on Sunday.

"I think North Korea refrained from any missile launches ― or other activities ― that could have interfered with media coverage of the Winter Olympics in Beijing. Now that the Olympics are over, it's likely we'll see a resumption of missile launches from North Korea, possibly to include an ICBM launch," said Joseph DeTrani, a former U.S. special envoy for negotiations with North Korea.

Ramon Pacheco Pardo, a professor of international relations at King's College London, presented a similar view, citing the absence of North Korea's negotiations with South Korea and the U.S.

"Once testing resumes, I would imagine that it will involve short-range ballistic missiles, medium-range ballistic missiles and technologies useful for intercontinental ballistic missiles," he said.

Amid growing speculation that North Korea is likely to soon pick up its saber-rattling where it left off to capture U.S. attention for its missile and nuclear threats, the South Korean unification ministry urged the North to return to dialogue, Monday.

However, experts differed on the timing of the North Korean weapons tests as China is scheduled to hold the Winter Paralympics at the same time as two major sessions ― from March 4 to 13. The two sessions are the National People's Congress (NPC), the top legislative body, and the Chinese People's Political Consultative Conference (CPPCC), the top political advisory body.

"North Korea does not seek approval from China for its testing schedule, but Pyongyang is sensitive to the impact these tests will have on relations with Beijing," U.S. Naval War College Professor Terence Roehrig said.

According to the state-run Korean Central News Agency, Tuesday, its leader Kim Jong-un has sent a verbal message to Chinese President Xi Jinping to congratulate China on the "successful" closing of the Beijing Winter Olympics in an apparent effort to strengthen ties with his country's traditional ally, according to the unification ministry.

"I think it is likely North Korea will hold off on any further testing until after China holds its March meetings, but after that, there could easily be a restart," Roehrig said.

Pacheco Pardo also said, "The dates of the conference overlap with the Paralympics. I think that this will make North Korea reluctant to conduct any tests then."

However, DeTrani said China would have no interest in North Korea's weapons tests, unless it detonates a nuclear bomb.

"I doubt that China's National People's Congress scheduled to be convened in March will affect North Korea's decision to launch one or more missiles," DeTrani said.

"It probably will, however, influence the North not to have a seventh nuclear test during the NPC."

Roehrig and Pacheco Pardo said Kim may also wait until South Korea's March 9 presidential election is over to see how the new administration's North Korea policies take shape.

Recently, the North Korean regime threatened to lift its self-imposed moratorium on nuclear and ballistic missile tests in protest of Washington's "hostile" moves. The North Korean leader declared a halt to all nuclear and ICBM tests in April 2018, during talks with then-U.S. President Donald Trump.

In that respect, the pundits speculate that North Korea may reach out to the U.S. in order to offer a formal testing moratorium in exchange for sanctions relief.

"Talks on a formal testing moratorium are certainly possible, but so far North Korea has shown no interest in talking and Pyongyang will expect something in return, most likely some level of sanctions relief," Roehrig said.

"(U.S. President Joe) Biden might be willing to offer some concessions in return for a formal agreement on a testing moratorium, but that is unclear."

DeTrani added, "If they did, it's likely the subject of a moratorium on missile launches and nuclear tests in exchange for the lifting of selective sanctions will be discussed."

Pacheco Pardo said North Korea will want to talk with both the U.S. and South Korea if it sees a window of opportunity with the new South Korean president.

"I think that the Biden administration would agree, since it has openly called for dialogue," he said.

"Plus, the Biden administration will want the new South Korean president on its side with its China policy. Reducing U.S.-North Korea tensions would help with this."