US may take two

U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken addresses reporters during his first press briefing at the State Department in Washington, D.C., Jan. 27. Reuters-Yonhap

By Do Je-hae

The new Joe Biden administration may use a two-track approach to deal with the nuclear standoff with North Korea, offering either incentives or sanctions depending on which stance the North takes, diplomatic analysts said.

U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken gave his first TV interview since taking office and there was very little mention of North Korea. But experts are taking note of the fact that the new top U.S. diplomat mentioned both "additional sanctions" and "diplomatic incentives" when talking about the next steps the Biden administration will take with North Korea.

"The first thing we're going to do is to review the policy across the board to look at what tools we have, including additional sanctions, including especially additional coordination and cooperation with allies and partners, but also to look at diplomatic incentives. So once we do that, we'll be able to tell you how we plan to move forward," Blinken said during an interview with MSNBC. He also called North Korea a "problem that has gotten worse across administrations."

Some experts said that Blinken's remarks suggest that the new administration could review a two-track policy of sanctions and engagement in order to bring North Korea back to the negotiating table regarding denuclearization.

"Blinken mentions both imposing costs and offering benefits, because his goal is to alter North Korea's incentive structure in favor of progress toward denuclearization," Leif-Eric Easley, a professor at Ewha University in Seoul, told The Korea Times.

Other analysts say the carrot-and-stick approach is not much different from policies U.S. administrations have taken in the past.

"Blinken is playing the familiar game of carrot-and-stick while suggesting that nothing will happen without a lengthy policy review," Donald Kirk, a columnist on Korean Peninsula affairs, told The Korea Times. "Secretary Blinken is pursuing much the same line that has characterized U.S. policy for years. The U.S. position under every president, even Donald Trump despite the relationship that he formed with Kim Jong-un, has linked incentives to sanctions. The message is clear: The U.S. will advocate certain incentives, notably economic aid, while giving up sanctions if the North takes clear steps to give up its nuclear program."

Blinken underscored that Biden has ordered a policy review to ensure the "most effective tools to advance the denuclearization of the Korean Peninsula," and to deal with the "growing problem posed by North Korea's arsenal." North Korea recently unveiled a submarine-launched ballistic missile earlier last month ahead of Biden's inauguration.

"Biden's policy review will consider what worked and what didn't during the Trump administration and the Obama years. Strategic patience and showy summits are likely to be replaced by more coordination with allies on deterrence, sanctions enforcement, and humanitarian and diplomatic engagement," Easley added.

Some experts also noted that the policy review this time would be different from previous ones, because the Biden administration will need to carefully analyze the communication that existed between the leaders of the U.S. and North Korea during the Trump administration. "What's different with previous transitions is the personal contact and communication at the highest leadership level. Biden must carefully weigh this record of relations of 2018-20," Mark P. Barry, an independent analyst on U.S.-North Korea relations, said in a recent tweet.