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联系方式 What is behind Kim's denuclearization offer?
2024-06-01 07:22:28 点击：039
North Korea may demand withdrawal of US troops from S. Korea
By Kim Jae-kyoung
North Korea is likely to demand that the U.S. withdraws its troops from South Korea in return for Pyongyang giving up its nuclear weapons, according to a former special adviser to the U.S. State Department.
She said Seoul and Washington should pay attention to the six-point statement from the latest round of inter-Korean talks, which states the need for the "entire Korean Peninsula," not just North Korea, to be denuclearized.
"This is a crucial point because it is related to the North's ultimate demand," said Balbina Hwang, a visiting professor at Georgetown University's Center for Security Studies.
The ultimate demand in her view is that if the North gives up its nuclear weapons, then the South must essentially give up its deterrence protection under the U.S. nuclear umbrella.
"This of course is related to Pyongyang's ultimate demand about security guarantees, which means it wants an end to the U.S. alliance and the removal of the U.S. presence from the Korean Peninsula, at a minimum," she said.
According to the six-point release, North Korean leader Kim Jong-un is willing to denuclearize the Korean Peninsula. He made it clear the North would have no reason to have nuclear weapons if military threats against it were resolved and the safety of its regime was guaranteed.
Hwang pointed out this position has never changed since the totalitarian regime was founded, and was essentially why all attempts to resolve the nuclear issue under the past three U.S. presidents _ Bill Clinton, George W. Bush and Barack Obama _ had failed.
As to whether the North will give up its nuclear weapons for a "U.S. security guarantee," she said the U.S. government had already given security guarantees many times, including an official statement by President Bush.
Hwang was a special adviser on East Asian affairs to the U.S. State Department in the Bush administration.
"The point is these statements will never be enough for the North, just as the North's promises are not enough for the U.S.," she said.
Against this backdrop, she believes no "security guarantee" can ultimately satisfy Pyongyang, except possibly the minimum requirement of an end to the U.S.-ROK alliance, and removal of U.S. troops from the peninsula.
"This is the reality that ultimately the U.S. and South Korea must face. Perhaps in the end, the U.S. and South Korea may decide the price of the North's denuclearization is to end the alliance," she said.
"I do not know if this is in the best interests of both countries or not. But certainly, this is something South Korea must decide on its own and not a decision that can or should be made only by the U.S."
The Washington-based North Korea expert remains skeptical about the prospect of U.S.-North Korea talks.
"If the North is serious this time about improving relations with the South, then perhaps the Moon administration may decide it no longer needs the U.S. alliance," she said.
"I do not expect very much real change or progress for a very long time. I suspect that whatever talks between the U.S. and North Korea may occur, they will fail many times before we see any real progress."
As for Moon, she said what he should do depended on his ultimate policy goal _ either he prioritizes inter-Korean peace and peaceful coexistence, or denuclearization of the North.
"Although he claims both, the two are simply incompatible," she said. "He, and the South Korean public, will have to make a choice."
By Kim Jae-kyoung
North Korea is likely to demand that the U.S. withdraws its troops from South Korea in return for Pyongyang giving up its nuclear weapons, according to a former special adviser to the U.S. State Department.
She said Seoul and Washington should pay attention to the six-point statement from the latest round of inter-Korean talks, which states the need for the "entire Korean Peninsula," not just North Korea, to be denuclearized.
"This is a crucial point because it is related to the North's ultimate demand," said Balbina Hwang, a visiting professor at Georgetown University's Center for Security Studies.
The ultimate demand in her view is that if the North gives up its nuclear weapons, then the South must essentially give up its deterrence protection under the U.S. nuclear umbrella.
"This of course is related to Pyongyang's ultimate demand about security guarantees, which means it wants an end to the U.S. alliance and the removal of the U.S. presence from the Korean Peninsula, at a minimum," she said.
According to the six-point release, North Korean leader Kim Jong-un is willing to denuclearize the Korean Peninsula. He made it clear the North would have no reason to have nuclear weapons if military threats against it were resolved and the safety of its regime was guaranteed.
Hwang pointed out this position has never changed since the totalitarian regime was founded, and was essentially why all attempts to resolve the nuclear issue under the past three U.S. presidents _ Bill Clinton, George W. Bush and Barack Obama _ had failed.
As to whether the North will give up its nuclear weapons for a "U.S. security guarantee," she said the U.S. government had already given security guarantees many times, including an official statement by President Bush.
Hwang was a special adviser on East Asian affairs to the U.S. State Department in the Bush administration.
"The point is these statements will never be enough for the North, just as the North's promises are not enough for the U.S.," she said.
Against this backdrop, she believes no "security guarantee" can ultimately satisfy Pyongyang, except possibly the minimum requirement of an end to the U.S.-ROK alliance, and removal of U.S. troops from the peninsula.
"This is the reality that ultimately the U.S. and South Korea must face. Perhaps in the end, the U.S. and South Korea may decide the price of the North's denuclearization is to end the alliance," she said.
"I do not know if this is in the best interests of both countries or not. But certainly, this is something South Korea must decide on its own and not a decision that can or should be made only by the U.S."
The Washington-based North Korea expert remains skeptical about the prospect of U.S.-North Korea talks.
"If the North is serious this time about improving relations with the South, then perhaps the Moon administration may decide it no longer needs the U.S. alliance," she said.
"I do not expect very much real change or progress for a very long time. I suspect that whatever talks between the U.S. and North Korea may occur, they will fail many times before we see any real progress."
As for Moon, she said what he should do depended on his ultimate policy goal _ either he prioritizes inter-Korean peace and peaceful coexistence, or denuclearization of the North.
"Although he claims both, the two are simply incompatible," she said. "He, and the South Korean public, will have to make a choice."