Clock ticking for Seoul's last

North Korean leader Kim Jong-un speaks during a Politburo meeting of the ruling Workers' Party in Pyongyang, Tuesday, in this handout photo released by Pyongyang's Korean Central News Agency. Yonhap

S. Korean President's term nearing end; no major factors seen to bring North Korea back to negotiations

By Nam Hyun-woo

The clock is ticking for President Moon Jae-in's efforts to improve inter-Korean relations, as North Korea remains reluctant to talk while South Korea is bracing for a transfer of power before the presidential election slated for March next year.

The Moon government had seen June as the optimal time to set the mood for inter-Korean or trilateral dialogue involving the U.S., and engage Pyongyang amid the Tokyo Olympics or other international events in the second half of this year.

While North Korea is lukewarm about a dialogue, Seoul and Washington are in talks over holding a combined military exercise scheduled for August, which North Korea strongly opposes. Experts say when the military drill takes place and South Korea enters into preparations for the presidential election, Moon's bid to thaw inter-Korean relations may lose momentum.

"There are no big event that could bring a change to the current stalemate between the two Koreas," said Go Myong-hyun, a senior fellow at the Asan Institute for Policy Studies. "With South Korea bracing for the presidential election next year, chances are lowering for North Korea to flip on its stance in the near future."

Such a view came amid North Korea's tepid response to continued call for talks from both the Moon and U.S. Joe Biden administrations.

Last month, U.S. special envoy for North Korea Sung Kim said during a visit to Seoul that Washington would hold talks with Pyongyang "anywhere, anytime without preconditions."

In response, Kim Yo-jong, the sister of the North's leader Kim Jong-un, said Washington had the "wrong" expectations for talks, dashing hopes for an immediate dialogue.

President Moon planned initially to use the opening ceremony of the Tokyo Olympics as an opportunity for resuming talks with Pyongyang, in a belief the regime would send high-profile figures to the event along with its athletes.

However, the North announced in April that it would not send its athletes to the Games, citing COVID-19. Thus Moon lost a precious opportunity to replicate the inter-Korean talk mood that arose around the 2018 PyeongChang Winter Games attended by Kim Yo-jong, which resulted in three consecutive inter-Korean summits that year.

As Moon's term expires next May, the last big opportunity for the President to open talks at non-political international events will be the Beijing Winter Olympics next February, but uncertainties remain due to the COVID-19 pandemic.

President Moon Jae-in and North Korea leader Kim Jong-un raise their hands during their summit at the inter-Korean border area, in this April 27, 2018, file photo. Yonhap

The Seoul-Washington Combined Command Post Training slated for August could also be a setback for Moon's hopes for improved relations between the two Koreas.

According to South Korea's Ministry of National Defense, Seoul and Washington are in talks over the drill's schedule and scale, while the country's Unification Minister Lee In-young has been calling for "flexibility," implying that suspending the drills will be helpful for resuming talks with the North.

However, some experts are expressing concerns over a suspension, because it is uncertain whether the North will respond to the conciliatory gesture as expected.

"Even if the exercise is suspended, it will become useless unless the North accepts it," Moon Chung-in, chairman of the Sejong Institute and former special adviser to President Moon for foreign and national security affairs, said during a forum on Jeju Island, June 25. "If the North does not accept this offer, the public support and momentum for peaceful inter-Korean relations will decline sharply."

The upcoming presidential election is also a pressure for Moon. The ruling Democratic Party of Korea on Wednesday finished receiving applications from its presidential hopefuls, while a heavyweight opposition hopeful, former Prosecutor General Yoon Seok-youl, announced his bid to run for the presidency on Tuesday, indicating that the country is now entering election mode.

"When the Moon government's grip on state affairs softens, the North will also lose interest in talks with the President," Go said. "Recently, Pyongyang's South Korea policy has been changing toward aggression. Even if a conservative administration succeeds the Moon government, there will be no big difference in the current stalemate."