Will North Korea make military provocation against combined drill?

Hellicopters and vehicles are deployed at U.S. Army Garrison Humphreys in Pyeongtaek, Gyeonggi Province, during this year's first Combined Command Post Training between South Korea and the U.S. in this March 8 photo. The two sides are yet to reveal the scale of the drill, which is anticipated to take place next month. Yonhap

Pyongyang issues warning against August exercise plan

By Nam Hyun-woo

North Korea has resumed its belligerent rhetoric against a combined summertime military exercise between Seoul and Washington, raising questions about whether the Kim Jong-un regime will escalate the situation with a military provocation.

Uriminzokkiri, a North Korean propaganda website, issued a warning Tuesday to South Korea and the U.S. with regard to the drill expected to be held in August, saying that "war exercises" and peace cannot exist simultaneously.

"The current instability on the Korean Peninsula is fully attributable to the warmongers among the South Korean military colluding with an outside power, and engaging in reckless, confrontational machinations," the website commented.

Citing previous exercises including the Combined Command Post Training in March and Seoul's participation in the cooperative maritime exercise Pacific Vanguard, it alleged "(South Korea) showed its craze for war exercises."

Uriminzokkiri also mentioned the recent deliveries of material and equipment to upgrade the U.S. Terminal High Altitude Area Defense base in Seongju, North Gyeongsang Province, and South Korea's deployment of RQ-4 Global Hawk high-altitude unmanned surveillance aircraft, saying "war games to strengthen armed forces will never stand hand in hand with peace."

Another propaganda website, Meari, also slammed the South Korean government for "pouring taxpayers' money into introducing and developing weapons without considering the South Korean people's toughened livelihood amid the fast spread of a vicious virus."

North Korea's newly developed submarine-borne ballistic missile Pukguksong-5 is shown at a military parade held Jan. 14 to mark the ruling Workers' Party of Korea's eighth congress, in this photo released by the country's state-run Korean Central News Agency the following day. Yonhap

South Korea and the U.S. are yet to reveal the scale and detailed plans for the annual summertime combined exercise. A Ministry of National Defense spokesman said Tuesday that the ministry was still "consulting with the U.S. about the military exercise, considering the COVID-19 situation, diplomatic efforts for peace of the Korean Peninsula and other factors."

With the Moon Jae-in administration seeing a glimmer of hope on improving the inter-Korean relations, anticipation is growing that Seoul and Washington may scale down the exercise so as not to anger North Korea. The fast spread of the delta variant of COVID-19 is also increasing uncertainty.

Recently, the North has refrained from publicly denouncing South Korea or the U.S., after Kim Yo-jong, the sister of the North's leader Kim, said in June that Washington had the "wrong" expectations for talks.

Since then, Pyongyang has not responded to overtures by Seoul and Washington. Tuesday's commentary by the "news" website Uriminzokkiri is also seen as a way to more delicately control tension before the exercise, experts said.

"I believe the chances are slim for North Korea to stage an immediate military provocation, even if the drill takes place as scheduled," said Kim Yong-hyun, a professor at Dongguk University's Department of North Korean Studies.

"The regime is facing difficulties in battling the pandemic and other economic adversities including its food supply, while the U.S. is unfolding its North Korea policies," he said. "Against this backdrop, a military provocation may result in the North starting off on the wrong foot. Though it is using bellicose rhetoric, the chances of Pyongyang staging an actual provocation seem to be very slim."

But others think the North may test a submarine-launched ballistic missile (SLBM) if a full-scale exercise takes place.

"If the summertime exercise takes place on a similar scale to the March drill, the North may end up launching short-range missiles," the Institute for National Security Strategy said in a report released last week. "If it is on a full scale, however, there is the possibility that the North will launch a solid-propellant SLBM, which it seeks to conduct a technology test on."