'Biden may order review of policy on North Korea'

A TV screen at Seoul Station shows news coverage of the U.S. presidential election, Wednesday. AP-Yonhap

By Do Je-hae

Experts have widely speculated that Joe Biden, who served eight years as vice president under former President Barack Obama, may return to Obama's "strategic patience" in dealing with North Korea when the two countries did not engage in diplomacy.

One of the biggest concerns about the post-election period is the possibility of a provocative weapons test from North Korea to get Biden's attention amid myriad issues that will take top priority in the new U.S. leader's agenda, such as the economy, racial conflict and COVID-19.

"If Biden is elected, the (North Korean leader) Kim Jong-un regime could conduct a provocative test as a 'welcome gift' and demand economic benefits to reduce military tensions," Leif-Eric Easley, a professor at Ewha University in Seoul, told The Korea Times.

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Donald Kirk, an authority on Korean Peninsula issues, told The Korea Times: "Biden for sure would have to order a review of policy toward North Korea. That might take a while, and Kim Jong-un might order more missile tests ― maybe not another long-range intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM), but short-to-mid-range types of the sort the North has fired so often during the Donald Trump presidency."

During a recent webinar, CSIS Korea chair Victor Cha also underlined that there is a possibility of post-election provocation to send an early signal to the new administration.

"If Biden wins, it wouldn't surprise me if North Korea fell back into their regular habits and started provocations after the election," Cha said. "Because I think they would largely associate Biden with a continuation of strategic patience of the years of Obama and they would want to send an early signal that they are not standing for that. Unfortunately, we could see provocations should Vice President Biden win."

Another big difference in Biden's North Korea policy may be the lack of top-down diplomacy favored by Trump, according to experts. Biden has called Kim Jong-un a "thug" and has said he will not meet Kim unless there is progress with denuclearization. Instead of summits, prospects are rising that Biden could opt for smaller negotiations rather than direct meetings with Kim.

"Biden might appear to be tougher than Trump, who fell 'in love' with Kim in their three meetings, but he would not want to escalate tensions," Kirk said. "We might expect more attempts at negotiations. They might not get very far, but at least the two sides might be talking."

It remains to be seen what approach Biden will take on the end-of-war declaration, which Seoul sees as a necessary step toward peace that should be pursued simultaneously with denuclearization.

"Biden, who's not a hard-liner or hawk in foreign relations, might not be averse to such a declaration," Kirk said. "The problem, though, would be on conditions that North Korea might want to attach to what might otherwise appear as a simple statement. North Korea so far has shown little or no interest in an end-of-war declaration."

Until the new president takes office in January, both Seoul and Washington agree on the need to maintain the status quo and contain any provocations from the North. The stable management of the situation on the Korean Peninsula in the post-election period will be among the primary topics during high-level bilateral meetings, including with U.S. national security adviser Robert O'Brien, who is set to visit Seoul later this month.