Yoon keeps all options open to counter North Korea's threats

2024-06-07 07:45:08      点击：395

President Yoon Suk-yeol answers reporters' questions as he enters his office in Yongsan District, Seoul, Thursday. Joint Press Corps

Debate heats up over redeployment of US tactical nuclear weapons in South Korea

By Nam Hyun-woo

A number of ideas are being floated to enhance Seoul's deterrence after South Korean President Yoon Suk-yeol hinted that he will keep all options open, including the redeployment of U.S. tactical nuclear weapons, in order to deal with North Korea's increasing belligerence.

"With various opinions being raised in South Korea and the U.S. over the extended deterrence, we are now listening and thoroughly studying various possibilities," Yoon told reporters Thursday when asked about the chance of sharing nuclear weapons with the U.S. He refused to elaborate further citing security concerns.

Recently, not only Yoon but also his aides have been using similar rhetoric whenever they were quizzed about Seoul's intention to ask the U.S. to deploy nuclear weapons on South Korean soil or other measures to cope with North Korea's ever-increasing security threats.

The North has been conducting a barrage of missile tests since last month, claiming the launches are "tactical nuclear drills," and the Kim Jong-un regime is anticipated to carry out its seventh nuclear test in the near future.

Calls are mounting, especially from the ruling conservative People Power Party (PPP), for South Korea to consider redeploying tactical nuclear weapons.

Former South Korean President Roh Tae-woo signs the Joint Declaration of the Denuclearization of the Korean Peninsula at Cheong Wa Dae, in this Feb. 17, 1992 file photo. Korea Times file

Turning the clock back

South Korea declared itself as a nuclear-free state in the early 1990s, to join the world's efforts to exit the Cold War era. Reportedly, U.S. Forces Korea possessed hundreds of tactical nuclear weapons since the 1950s. The weapons were removed from the Korean Peninsula after the Joint Declaration of the Denuclearization of the Korean Peninsula, which was adopted by the two Koreas in 1991 and took effect in February of the following year.

The recent calls for redeploying nuclear weapons in South Korea mean that the joint declaration will no longer be viable. And if that is the case, Seoul and Washington must consider turning the clock back to bring U.S. tactical nuclear weapons back here.

"The time has come," PPP interim leader Chung Jin-suk wrote on Facebook, Wednesday. "If the North carries out the seventh nuclear weapons test, the 2018 comprehensive military agreement between the two Koreas and the 1991 denuclearization declaration should be scrapped."

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The redeployment of tactical nuclear weapons in South Korea will be a warning to the North that if the regime stages a nuclear strike on the South, Seoul will respond with an immediate nuclear response, experts said. This will be more effective than the current U.S. pledge of extended deterrence, which gives protection to its non-nuclear ally by deploying strategic assets, they said.

This will be helpful for Seoul to regain its balance against the North, but observers said chances are slim, citing the strategic gravity that the U.S. has to shoulder and potential opposition from China.

"This is like an eye for an eye," a Seoul-based defense analyst said asking not to be named. "If the U.S. abandons its commitment to the Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT) and decides to bring back tactical nukes to South Korea, there will be no grounds for Washington to refuse calls for deploying such weapons in Japan or Taiwan."

"And most importantly, China and Russia will not sit back. We should remember China's relatively recent economic retaliation concerning Seoul's decision to deploy a U.S. Terminal High Altitude Area Defense battery here," the analyst added.

In its latest national security strategy released on Wednesday, the U.S. reaffirmed its commitment to completely denuclearize the Korean Peninsula, meaning both South and North Korea, through diplomacy.

The U.S. carrier USS Ronald Reagan is escorted as it arrives in Busan, South Korea on Sept. 23. AP-Yonhap

Strategic assets

Due to the potential risks, it was reported that the South Korean government has decided to improve its deterrence within the boundaries of the NPT, although they did not elaborate in order to maintain strategic ambiguity.

Sources said the government instead is inclined to ask the U.S. to strengthen its extended deterrence by deploying strategic assets carrying nuclear weapons around the Korean Peninsula on a regular basis.

Deploying a U.S. carrier strike group or submarines loaded with tactical nuclear weapons to international waters near South Korea is mentioned as a possible scenario.

This is seen as a compromise plan, which does not go against the principle of the denuclearization of the Korean Peninsula and at the same time enables a significant improvement in deterrence capabilities.

In comparison, the North Atlantic Treaty Organization's (NATO) nuclear sharing agreement provides security by deploying U.S. B-61 nuclear weapons to certain locations in Europe and carries out missions by certified allied aircraft if necessary.

This option, however, is also anticipated to trigger strong opposition from China and Russia, as well as entailing difficult talks over how to share the costs. Also, those options have their limits in regard to a rapid response to the North's abrupt nuclear attacks, because the U.S. will make its call for nuclear strikes.

"Even if the U.S. redeploys or shares its tactical nuclear weapons with Seoul, the decision of using a nuclear weapon is up to the U.S. president," said Cheong Seong-chang, director of the Center for North Korean Studies at the Sejong Institute.

During a forum on Oct. 5, Kong Pyeong-won, security strategy center chief at Yonsei University's Aerospace Strategy & Technology Institute, said the U.S. may not be able to decide to use its nuclear weapons against the North if the regime threatens to use its nuclear weapons against the U.S.

Due to this, there are opinions that Seoul should consider developing its own nuclear weapons. However, a senior official at the presidential office ruled out this possibility, saying "it is impossible to develop our own nuclear weapons given our commitment to the NPT."