Ukraine conflict, a cautionary tale for security

North Korean leader Kim Jong-un attends a meeting of the Central Committee of the ruling Workers' Party in Pyongyang, North Korea, Jan. 19, in this photo provided by the North Korean government. Russian President Vladimir Putin's order to send troops into eastern Ukraine could be a reminder of the grim reality for North Korea: A deal to bargain away its nuclear arms could prove to be a scrap of paper anytime in the world of power politics. AP-Yonhap

Russian President Vladimir Putin's order to send troops into eastern Ukraine could be a reminder of the grim reality for North Korea: A deal to bargain away its nuclear arms could prove to be a scrap of paper anytime in the world of power politics.

Defying international pleas, Putin ordered his "peacekeeping" troops into two breakaway regions in Ukraine, Monday, recognizing them as "independent" states ― a move that U.S. President Joe Biden has said amounted to the "beginning of a Russian invasion."

The strongman's military step is now rekindling a debate over the fate of the 1994 Budapest Memorandum under which the United States, Russia and Britain pledged to offer security assurances to Ukraine in return for its handover of all Soviet-era nuclear weapons.

For Pyongyang, the unfurling crisis in Ukraine might be a grim indication that any future denuclearization deal ― whether that be with Washington or Beijing ― could be as fragile as the Budapest Memorandum, observers said.

"The Ukraine crisis will be yet another historical lesson for North Korea: A weak country is likely to face such a scenario after all," Park Won-gon, professor of North Korean studies at Ewha Womans University, said.

"In fact, the North's position has long been that security assurances from major powers are futile, and that is a reason why it has sought to bolster self-reliant capabilities and build its own nuclear force," he added.

The escalating standoff over Ukraine came as nuclear negotiations between Washington and Pyongyang have remained stalled since the summit between the two countries in Hanoi in 2019 ended without a deal.

People wearing face masks walk on the street near the Pyongyang Railway Station, North Korea, Jan. 27. AP-Yonhap

The North's nuclear quandary has long eluded U.S. administrations partly because the recalcitrant regime has remained doubtful whether any American promises of security assurances can be credible and will remain unaffected by a change of government inherent in a democracy.

The North's such doubts were reinforced when in2018 former U.S. President Donald Trump withdrew Washington from the landmark 2015 Iranian nuclear deal signed under his predecessor, Barack Obama.

Putin's troop dispatch order this week harks back to Russia's 2014 annexation of the Crimean Peninsula, which was then cited as an ominous sign that the Budapest arrangement was hanging by a thread.

The 2014 redrawing of the European map and the current Ukrainian crisis have unnerved the U.S. and other allies as they see the two cases as a body blow to the long-held principle: National borders should not be altered by military force.

Amid growing signs of the principle's erosion, the North has gone overboard to sharpen its military edge through a series of advanced missile tests last month, including those of hypersonic and intermediate-range ones.

Pyongyang has also appeared keen on reinforcing its nuclear weapons capabilities, casting them as the "treasured sword." It has expressed a desire to develop tactical nuclear arms while doubling down on diversifying delivery vehicles.

"As North Korea watches the encroachment on the territorial integrity of Ukraine in the annexation of the Crimea and the ongoing crisis, the regime would find it difficult to abandon its nuclear program, which is like an insurance policy for the North," Kim Tae-hyung, a professor of international politics at Soongsil University, said.

A TV screen at Seoul Station shows a media report on the Ukrainian crisis, Feb. 22. Yonhap

For South Korea, what's happening there may not be something it can write off as a faraway crisis. Beyond its potential economic fallout, the security crisis poses a major geopolitical question of whether to allow what could be a breach of a key international rule: noninterference.

The Seoul government has so far appeared cautious about the issue of joining the U.S.-led campaign to sanction Russia for its latest military operation, while signaling its desire to offer humanitarian assistance to Ukraine.

The U.S. and its allies imposed coordinated retaliatory sanctions targeting Russian officials and two key banks while warning of tougher measures to be rolled out in the case of escalation.

A senior official at Cheong Wa Dae said Wednesday that Seoul was not considering military support or deployment in connection to the Ukrainian crisis while leaving ambiguity on the sanctions issue.

"Major Western nations have expressed a willingness to join in sanctions. We are also looking at this while leaving various possibilities open," the official told reporters on the condition of anonymity.

As the Biden administration has been striving to rally its regional allies and partners against an assertive China and a nuclear-ambitious North Korea, Beijing, Moscow and Pyongyang have appeared to be closing ranks with one another.

For Beijing and Pyongyang, however, the unfolding situations in Ukraine could be a worrisome development given that both have ardently championed the principle of noninterference ― a term they often use to criticize America.

"From the North's perspective, the Russian order to send troops into Ukraine might be an act against its anti-imperialist credo," Park of Ewha Womans University said. "For China that has balked at any acts to meddle in internal affairs, it could be an embarrassing one too." (Yonhap)